Weekly Research

Weekly Roundup

Institutional macro roundup: rates, equities, FX, commodities and on-chain — with explicit positioning and falsifier levels.

Weekly Roundup15 min read

Two central banks diverge as the curve re-steepens into an inflation scare

The next Fed move is no longer assumed to be a cut. The US 2Y at 4.13% (+1.2% WoW, +19.0% YTD) prices a higher-for-longer reaction function as the FOMC heads into 17 June with CPI at a three-year high. The ECB hiked into a supply shock while the Fed holds, widening the policy

12 June 2026Read Roundup
Weekly Roundup·15 min read

Crude corrects as the curve re-steepens into a hawkish hold

The week's regime is a hawkish hold with a re-steepening curve. The 10Y at 4.49% (+22bp WoW) and the 2Y at 4.08% (+2bp WoW) leave a 41bp gap, with the published 10Y-2Y spread at 0.42, as the front end stays pinned by a 3.63% policy rate. Energy unwound a geopolitical premium

5 June 2026Read
Weekly Roundup·16 min read

Crude correction meets a flattening curve as core PCE cools to 3.3%

The week's signal is a softer-than-feared inflation print landing against a hawkish-hold Fed. April core PCE printed 3.3% YoY with the MoM at 0.2% versus the 0.3% consensus, and the 10Y fell to 4.48% (-4.1% WoW) while the 2Y held at 4.00%. Equity beta is extended, not broken.

29 May 2026Read
Weekly Roundup·16 min read

Oil shock meets hawkish pivot: crude surges 10% as the Fed signals rate-hike readiness

Crude's war premium reshapes the policy calculus. Brent surged +10.0% WoW to $116.73/bbl, its highest level since the Hormuz closure began, while FOMC minutes revealed a growing faction prepared to lay groundwork for rate hikes if inflation stays elevated. Yields break higher on

22 May 2026Read
Weekly Roundup·4 min read

Yields Climb, Crude Corrects, and the Fed Holds Its Line at 3.64%

Crude Surge, Bond Selloff, and a Fractured Risk Tape Define the Week of 15 May 2026 The dominant theme this week was a violent divergence across asset classes: energy rallied hard while duration, credit, and risk assets broadly retreated. Brent crude closed at $106.11, down

15 May 2026Read