Weekly research

Weekly roundup

Global equities, rates, digital assets and commodities, every week, with the sources behind each view.

Hawkish hold: front-end relief masks a credit warning equities have not priced

This is a hawkish hold, not a pivot. The 2Y at 4.67% sits 92bp above the 3.75% fed funds reading, so the market still prices tightening even after a -2.9% WoW fall in the 2Y yield. Credit contradicts the equity tape, and we side with credit. SPY is +11.2% YTD while HYG is -4.0%

30 October 2026Read roundup

Weekly roundup·16 min read

Long end prices growth damage while the front end stays pinned

The curve is bull-flattening into a stagflation lean. The 10Y fell -1.2% WoW in yield terms to 5.13% while the 2Y held at 4.81%, a 32bp positive slope. Equity leadership is rotating away from duration while credit sits near its lows. QQQ fell -1.1% and FEZ -2.4% as IWM gained

23 October 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Long end rallies as front-end tightening exposes AI credit strain

The long end is pricing the growth cost of a hawkish front end. The 10Y yield fell -1.5% WoW to 5.19% while the 2Y rose +0.6% to 4.82%, leaving a 37bp gap. The AI rotation is a credit story as well as an equity one. QQQ fell -3.7% WoW against DIA at +1.5%, and HYG at 77.06 sits

16 October 2026Read

Weekly roundup·17 min read

Term premium, not the Fed, now sets the price of US duration

Duration risk now sits at the long end of the curve. The 10Y at 5.28% is 3bp below its 5.31% 52-week high, while the 2Y eased -2.3% WoW to 4.77%. Index strength hides a credit and breadth warning. SPY sits 0.3% below its $779.09 high, yet HYG at $77.14 trades within touching

9 October 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Credit confirms the 5.29% long-end regime; equity strength narrows to the Nasdaq

The long end sets the regime. The US 10Y closed at 5.29%, a 52-week high and +3.5% WoW, while the 2Y at 4.88% barely moved, a term-premium rebuild rather than a Fed-path repricing. Credit confirms what equities deny. LQD (-7.1% YTD) and HYG (-4.4% YTD) sit within cents of

2 October 2026Read

Weekly roundup·16 min read

Bonds do the tightening as credit cracks under a 5.11% 10Y

The bond market is doing the Fed's tightening. The US 10Y closed at 5.11% and the 2Y at 4.85%, both 52-week highs, after the Fed's first hike in three years. Credit is the crack in the risk-on tape. HYG sits at a 52-week low of $77.88 while QQQ rallied +3.0% WoW; we side with

25 September 2026Read

Weekly roundup·14 min read

The 10Y at 5.01% resets the discount rate; equity resilience is borrowed time

Tightening has resumed and the bond market believes it. The FOMC's 25bp hike took the US 10Y to 5.01% and the 2Y to 4.74%, both 52-week highs. Equity resilience is narrower than the index shows. QQQ gained +0.5% WoW while DIA fell -1.9% and IWM -1.7%, and credit sits oversold

18 September 2026Read

Weekly roundup·16 min read

Energy supply shock repricing: yields at cycle highs, credit near lows, equities late

The energy shock has moved into the rates market. The US 10Y ended the week at 4.83% and the 2Y at 4.43%, both 52-week highs, with the German Bund at 3.53% after the ECB's 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate. Equities are absorbing the discount-rate reset unevenly. SPY fell -1.0%

11 September 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Yields print 52-week highs and credit, not equities, pays the bill

Term premium repriced globally. The US 10Y hit 4.79% and the 2Y 4.39%, both 52-week highs, with the German 10Y up +5.3% WoW to 3.37%. Credit is the honest tape. LQD fell -0.7% WoW to 105.59 against a 52-week low of 105.22, and HYG dropped -0.7% to 79.21 versus a 78.72 floor,

4 September 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

The 10Y presses 4.66% as the energy reprieve fails to buy duration relief

The hawkish hold is the regime. The FOMC held its target range at 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote with three dissents, while the 10Y closed at 4.66%, just 9bp below its 4.75% 52w high. The crude correction is a reprieve, not a turn. Brent fell -7.4% WoW to $88.24/bbl on our primary

28 August 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Long-end buybacks read as soft curve control; debasement hedges lead as equities lag

Treasury's upsized long-end buybacks are quasi-curve control. The 10Y closed at 4.65%, 10bp under its 4.75% 52-week high, while gold (GLD) rose +4.5% WoW and Bitcoin +22.0% on the monetization read. Equities traded the discount rate, not the liquidity. SPY fell -1.5% WoW and QQQ

21 August 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Record equities collide with a 4.68% 10Y; the bond market refuses to confirm

The long end is doing the tightening. The 10Y at 4.68% sits 7bp from its 4.75% 52-week high while the policy rate holds at an effective 3.63%; we are underweight long duration and take carry at the 2Y's 4.2%. Equities and credit disagree, and credit is the cleaner read. SPY's

14 August 2026Read

Weekly roundup·17 min read

Yen intervention eases the dollar; equities bank the gift, credit counts the cost

Reported yen intervention has reset the dollar regime. USD/JPY fell -2.8% WoW to 159.16 alongside reports of coordinated US-Japan FX intervention, and the broad dollar index eased -0.8% to 119.70. Equities bank the easing; credit counts the duration cost. SPY closed at a 52-week

7 August 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Duration is the fault line after a hawkish hold

The Fed's hawkish hold has moved the repricing to the long end. The 10Y sits at 4.67%, 4bp below its 4.71% 52-week high, while TLT closed the week at a fresh 52-week low of $82.41, -5.3% YTD. Equities and credit disagree, and we side with credit. SPY gained +1.0% WoW to $746.08,

31 July 2026Read

Weekly roundup·16 min read

Front-end repricing drives both Treasury yields to 52-week highs; duration is the risk

The Treasury curve repriced to twin 52-week highs and the market is pricing hikes, not cuts. The 2Y at 4.31% sits 68bp above the 3.63% effective funds rate, and the 10Y at 4.67% dragged TLT -1.4% WoW to 83.30, 0.28 above its 83.02 52-week low. Credit confirms a duration shock,

24 July 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

The hold hardens: front-end relief fades while long yields and the dollar stay pinned

The hawkish hold hardened, not eased. The 2Y fell -1.9% WoW in yield to 4.13% while the 10Y held 4.55% against its 4.67% 52-week high, a 42bp gap that prices patience rather than cuts. Equity weakness is a discount-rate event, not a credit event. QQQ fell -4.5% WoW against DIA's

17 July 2026Read

Weekly roundup·16 min read

Hawkish hold repricing lifts the front end while equities pay up anyway

The front end is repricing a hawkish hold. The US 2Y closed at 4.21%, 3bp below its 52-week high of 4.24% and +21.3% YTD, while the 10Y at 4.56% leaves a 35bp gap between the two legs. Equities are paying for growth while credit pays the rates bill. SPY is +10.2% YTD and 0.9%

10 July 2026Read

Weekly roundup·16 min read

Warsh dims the cuts as crude sheds its war premium

The rates story is a hawkish hold, not a pivot. The US 2Y sits at 4.17% (+1.5% WoW, +20.2% YTD) against a 3.63% policy rate, pricing in a Fed that has closed the door on near-term easing. Crude's war premium is gone and it is deflationary at the margin. Brent at $71.59 fell

3 July 2026Read

Weekly roundup·12 min read

Hawkish hold meets crude correction as duration rallies into a firmer dollar

The post-FOMC hawkish repricing has unwound and duration is leading. The US 10Y fell to 4.41%, -45bp WoW, even as the 2Y rose to 4.11%, +1.5% WoW, steepening the curve to a 30bp gap. Crude gave back its war premium and equities cracked at the top end. WTI fell -10.9% WoW to

26 June 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Hawkish hold meets crude correction as the curve flattens to 27bp

The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% but tilted the dot path higher, and the front end took the message. The 2Y rose to 4.20% (+1.7% WoW) while the 10Y fell to 4.49% (-1.3% WoW), compressing the 10Y-2Y to 27bp. Crude corrected hard on a US-Iran de-escalation read, and the equity tape

19 June 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Two central banks diverge as the curve re-steepens into an inflation scare

The next Fed move is no longer assumed to be a cut. The US 2Y at 4.13% (+1.2% WoW, +19.0% YTD) prices a higher-for-longer reaction function as the FOMC heads into 17 June with CPI at a three-year high. The ECB hiked into a supply shock while the Fed holds, widening the policy

12 June 2026Read

Weekly roundup·15 min read

Crude corrects as the curve re-steepens into a hawkish hold

The week's regime is a hawkish hold with a re-steepening curve. The 10Y at 4.49% (+22bp WoW) and the 2Y at 4.08% (+2bp WoW) leave a 41bp gap, with the published 10Y-2Y spread at 0.42, as the front end stays pinned by a 3.63% policy rate. Energy unwound a geopolitical premium

5 June 2026Read

Weekly roundup·16 min read

Crude correction meets a flattening curve as core PCE cools to 3.3%

The week's signal is a softer-than-feared inflation print landing against a hawkish-hold Fed. April core PCE printed 3.3% YoY with the MoM at 0.2% versus the 0.3% consensus, and the 10Y fell to 4.48% (-4.1% WoW) while the 2Y held at 4.00%. Equity beta is extended, not broken.

29 May 2026Read

Weekly roundup·16 min read

Oil shock meets hawkish pivot: crude surges 10% as the Fed signals rate-hike readiness

Crude's war premium reshapes the policy calculus. Brent surged +10.0% WoW to $116.73/bbl, its highest level since the Hormuz closure began, while FOMC minutes revealed a growing faction prepared to lay groundwork for rate hikes if inflation stays elevated. Yields break higher on

22 May 2026Read

Weekly roundup·4 min read

Yields Climb, Crude Corrects, and the Fed Holds Its Line at 3.64%

Crude Surge, Bond Selloff, and a Fractured Risk Tape Define the Week of 15 May 2026 The dominant theme this week was a violent divergence across asset classes: energy rallied hard while duration, credit, and risk assets broadly retreated. Brent crude closed at $106.11, down

15 May 2026Read